The outcome and duration of the war in the Middle East may be decided by a grim calculus based on the size of Iran’s drone and missile stocks v vital air defence munitions held by the US, Israel and Gulf states, analysts and officials say.
Since Saturday, Iran and its proxies have sought to counter the intensive joint US and Israeli offensive with more than 1,000 strikes against targets across almost a dozen countries spread over 1,200 miles. With its antiquated air force unable to compete with those of Israel and the US, Tehran has relied on its arsenal of missiles and drones.
The geographical extent of Iran’s retaliatory attacks have made the conflict the widest in the Middle East since the second world war. Israeli and US aircraft and missiles have struck hundreds of sites across Iran, without losing a plane to hostile fire.
The US and Israel are seeking to destroy as much of Iran’s missile stockpile and infrastructure as possible, targeting launchers, stores and personnel.
Considering we’ve been using the already very limited stockpile of $5m patriot missiles to intercept $35k Shahed drones in some cases, I don’t think this is really a question of “who will run out first?” The US and Israel’s “warfighting” experience in the last 30+ years is almost entirely fighting enemies with no ability to retaliate. This isn’t a war that they can win, just a war that they can lose less badly than Iran.