Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain
Feb 18, 2026
A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.
Iran realizes that it is facing an unprecedented threat from the U.S. if a deal that conforms with Trump’s terms is not reached, former Pentagon official Jasmine El-Gamal told Drop Site. “This is not a dress rehearsal,” she said. “This is it. This is not the negotiations of last year or the year before or the year before that. They’re backed into a corner. There’s no off ramp.”
Can’t have elections during a war. Or some bullshit according to diddlin Donnie.
I hope that Iran sinks a carrier. The Trump Regime should have egg on their face, and be forced to keep their grasping hands from touching people.
That would mean an actual declared war, which would bring Russia and China in.
Iran already got bombed to hell and back some months ago, maybe this is the time for action? The question is: would the rest of the West go along, once more, with the Burgers or will they abstain?
Iran isn’t Iraq. This will be a major war with a technologically advanced military. Eventually, there will be a draft. Unfortunately, they’re probably smart enough to do it by Zip code, meaning it will be another Vietnam: a war of the poor and the not-white.
Every American who called Russians orcs better be getting ready to fully embrace that label.
seriously. they don’t get half the shit they deserve.
what’s new after iraq?
The American invaders versus the Persian defenders. A full scale bombardment.
They just need to channel the power of ahura mazda and send in the Immortal regiment.
Iran is such a beautiful country. I’ve watched people motorcycle and bicycle through it on YouTube and the people are so kind and warm. It’s really upsetting the way America wields it’s might.
I was just gonna say to look out for those suspicious anonymous 300k+ bets from high rollers
pizza index is really quiet right now, but the AFB i live by is tense. my money says next week.
Trump is finally about to become presidential.
Wdym, he’s already doing the civilian bombing and random country attacks.
Does he really need a war to get full presidential when already the embodiment of what’s wrong with America?
A full-scale, unprovoked invasion of Iran is the only thing that will make Trump a real president in the eyes of the Democrats.
Idk, I think that hinges on him letting them vote to allow it first. If he doesn’t let them vote yes they’ll be upset. Just like trumps other attacks that didn’t tell them beforehand
That’s true, they are sticklers for procedure.
And so many are excited at the thought of getting to approve attacking or bombing Iran 😭
Also getting his Nobel peace prize aaaany minute now.
lol didn’t Machado already give him hers in hopes of being crowned queen of Venezuela
trump immediately makes fun of her too. i still have second hand embarrassment for that one.
Idk what else she expected. For Trump it’s immediate or nothing. She didn’t say it on podium so anything else doesn’t matter
🤣
Is the likelihood of an invasion based on something Iran is doing? Or is it dependent on how horrifying the next Epstein file drop will be? I mean…I know the fucking answer to this already. Doesn’t make it any less infuriating. This piece of shit will start World War III, all to distract everyone from the fact that he raped children. “No new wars.”
It is about controlling the straight of hormuz for the usa and to crush any resistance to the greater israel plan for Israel
Its never been about anything Iran is doing. They have never had a nuclear weapons program.
Not that I support this action, but Don’t they have an enrichment facility with centrifuges?
They want nuclear energy, not weapons (though it’s pretty stupid for them, nukes are the only thing stopping US monster)
They have nuclear power plants that require enriched uranium.
If Iran wanted a nuclear bomb, instead of spending months trying to enrich Uranium beyond what’s required for power and medicine, they could simply chemically separate plutonium out from spent fuel.
A uranium bomb is easier to develop and mass producing enriched uranium with existing centrifuges is as well.
The reports from the IAEA clearly showed Iran had put their centrifuges in a cascade to make as much weapons grade uranium from mid 2024 to the attacks last summer.
Iran had put their centrifuges in a cascade
That’s how any uranium enrichment works, each centrifuge only enriches the uranium by like .3%. They have a cascade that enriches to 60%, which is what the NPT allows. Weapons grade is 90%.
As replied to your other comment, your claim seems like a big fat lie
No one needs 60% unless they want to make a bomb
60% was chosen as the limit for the NPT because it has non-weapons purpose and cannot be used to create a bomb without a shitton more refinement.
Reuters
Yeah, and Iraq is totally producing weapons of mass destruction
You can find the reports yourself on the IAEA site
Sorry you got duped about Iraq. Did you get your news from Reuters?
“Heh, no u” you empire simps are pathetic
I wouldn’t take a Lemmy comment as evidence either way.
Can you explain why they were mass producing weapons-grade uranium?
They weren’t, weapons grade is 90, 60 is what is permitted by the NPT agreement, which is what they were enriching to.
Well I don’t really expect you to answer the question why they would be enriching to 60 anymore, but could you give a source on your claim that “this would be permitted by the NPT agreement”?
My guess is that that’s a big fat lie
Here the treaty in question to get you started
edit: here’s the IAEA resolution explicitly stating that Iran was in breach of the NPT safeguards agreement. I’m really interested in your sources that refute this
That resolution refers to the requirements set by the 2019 agreement after the Trump unilaterally tore up the previous, multilateral agreement. America does not get to dictate what other states are allowed to do.
Yeah but can you back up your claim that Iran was permitted 60% ‘under the NPT’?
It seems you’re sidestepping because you’ve been caught in a lie
It’s over resources since forever.
I really hate how prophetic the movie Wag the Dog was.
yeah I saw almost no coverage on this today. the zone is flooded, and boy is it shit.
Don lemon though, they covered it extensively.
Sadly both sides are eager to attack Iran 😭 😭 😭.
Reminder Schumer started taco trump because Trump was hinting he may be soft on Iran not for anything he does to the America
Schumer will only be mad that Trump didn’t fill out the right paperwork, but will fullthroated support the policy.
I know this is naive but is there ZERO international efforts to stop this blatant terrorism?
Russia and China have been sending military aid to Iran. China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military production. Clearly that hasn’t been a sufficient deterrent though.
And there’s really nothing that can be done in terms of international law because the US simply ignores it.
Obviously neither Russia nor China want to have a direct military confrontation with the US either. That would be WW3, and likely lead to a nuclear holocaust.
So, it seems like a war on Iran is unavoidable at this point.
With a dictatorship of the bourgeoisie why is Russia being so nice?
They’re not nice. They wanted to be part of the western club since the fall of USSR, but the west chose to have an antagonistic relationship instead which pushed Russia towards the Global South, because it’s the only option they had. Iran is important to both Russia and China geographically since it creates a route to Middle East and Africa, and it acts as the key force to contain US and Israeli influence in the region.
China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military
I thought they capitulated in this, no?
It sounds like its incumbent on american citizens, then
Nope, they never lifted restrictions on that.
Good. I hope they never do
Yeah, if China stops supplying rare earths, that’s really going to cripple US military production capacity going forward.
I guess that also explains the recent american involvement in Africa too
Europe outsourced their militarism to the US for 40-60 years.
Who would stop this? As in, who has the forces to do so?
Ugh, its so true. But like, what about the UN ( i know, i know). What about congress? (Again). Where is anything?
But like, what about the UN ( i know, i know).
Well, I mean, do you? You’re asking about a body created by and hosted in the US and funded also largely by the US. It’s toothless and useless because nobody has ever done anything substantial to legitimize it except the US and now that the US has decided that unilateral fascism is the easy path, what exactly does anyone expect?
It’s like a microcosm of the sum of Europe’s problems rn, tbh.
But surely there are economic sanctions or SOME even milqtoast consequences that can get ball rolling
Im aware how reckless the un is but those sorts of rebukes on the international stage DO make a difference
I dunno what planet you’ve been on, but the international efforts for the last few major wars have been very little but finger wagging.
I totally know that but like … notning? Really? UN? NATO? WEF? Anybody?
It used to be the USSR but that era is long gone and the US filled the void.
Not even China wants to go down that route.
Iran also failed to properly maintain and upgrade their military since the end of the war with Iraq. They have an internal political issue which is why they have the IRGC, which is a completely separate entity from the national military.
It was in the supreme leader’s interest to keep the main military weak to ensure he couldn’t be couped, but now that has left them extremely exposed.
Didnt know that. Makes sense. Do you think he could rally a defense force?
Eh, it’s Iran. Most of the world hates them, so good luck gathering support.
Hell awaits.
Most of the world hates them
Just most of the white world
Just most of the white world
after being the cause of the reasons they currently hate Iran
Sadly, it’s just Bibi and Donnie with their, ahem, questionable motives, who seem willing to intervene there
Willing? Do you mean: doing all the harm?
Do you think the Iranian regime murdering all opposition is causing no harm?
Im not advocating for that regime. Thats a separate issue.
However, the usa abd pissrael goaded Iran into a much more severe reaction. Do you remember when pissrael said they had agents inciting insurrection amongst the protesters?
They ‘goaded them’? They started torturing and killing all opposition the very day they took power. Didn’t need any help for that
I think countries should bomb the USA as they have ice concentration camps. And while they do so I hope that the civilian deaths are people like you
You sound like a wonderful human being
Heaven awaits
Again, this is not me advocating for the regime. However, as an anti-imperiliast, I can hope that the people of Iran make changes to their government on their own, without 2000 lb palestinian child murder bombs from the usa
Do you think they have a chance without outside help?
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