Tonal and Logographic didn’t become Lingua Franca because they’re more difficult to learn and standardization is even more challenging than with Alphabetic languages.
This is ignoring the geopolitical reasons that English became the worldwide lingua franca and is reverse-engineering the reason from a single example.
Chinese was the lingua franca of the sinosphere for centuries.
Imagine if it was China who had the power and expanse of the British Empire, it’s not like a non-tonal non-logographic language would suddenly appear and become a lingua franca for no reason other than it being easier to learn. That’s just not how lingua francas come to be.
Though you could argue that if Chinese became the worldwide lingua franca, the efforts to romanize/alphabetize it would have more force and the language itself might change. Vietnam, Korea, and Japan all had their own movements to move away from Chinese characters (with VERY different motivations/outcomes in each country).
But I really disagree with your premise that difficulty in learning is what decides a lingua franca.
Tonal and Logographic didn’t become Lingua Franca because they’re more difficult to learn and standardization is even more challenging than with Alphabetic languages.
This is like language 101 stuff.
This is well explained in Ancient Writing and the History of the Alphabet by The Great Courses.
This is ignoring the geopolitical reasons that English became the worldwide lingua franca and is reverse-engineering the reason from a single example.
Chinese was the lingua franca of the sinosphere for centuries.
Imagine if it was China who had the power and expanse of the British Empire, it’s not like a non-tonal non-logographic language would suddenly appear and become a lingua franca for no reason other than it being easier to learn. That’s just not how lingua francas come to be.
Though you could argue that if Chinese became the worldwide lingua franca, the efforts to romanize/alphabetize it would have more force and the language itself might change. Vietnam, Korea, and Japan all had their own movements to move away from Chinese characters (with VERY different motivations/outcomes in each country).
But I really disagree with your premise that difficulty in learning is what decides a lingua franca.
I’d be inclined to square the blame on economic and cultural imposition.
Which means that in maybe 50 years it will be like you say because of China’s increasing weight on world affairs.
I suspect if China wanted to impose a Lingua Franca on the world, they’d be pragmatic about it and invent something the world could learn and accept.
They seem to be very outcome focused rather than worrying about how they get there.