This is my takeaway from listening to NPR Planet Money.
Economists are never sure about anything, because that’s not how the world works. They only give rough estimations based on the current data, and say words like “maybe” or “high possibility”.
It’s true, but it’s not because of their lack of knowledge, it’s because of the nature of the system they’re talking about. The economy is based on thousands of tiny variables, and which ones are relevant changes depending on the current state. Small changes to one part create feedback loops that effect other parts. It’s also not linear. You can change one thing by 1% and wind up changing other parts of the economy by 50%.
Economists take their best guesses based on the models and understanding they have right now, but it’s not like engineering - it’s notoriously hard to predict what the real causes and impact of anything will be. So you’re absolutely right - everything is an estimate because the system is inherently chaotic.
This is my takeaway from listening to NPR Planet Money.
Economists are never sure about anything, because that’s not how the world works. They only give rough estimations based on the current data, and say words like “maybe” or “high possibility”.
They’re not sith lords.
It’s true, but it’s not because of their lack of knowledge, it’s because of the nature of the system they’re talking about. The economy is based on thousands of tiny variables, and which ones are relevant changes depending on the current state. Small changes to one part create feedback loops that effect other parts. It’s also not linear. You can change one thing by 1% and wind up changing other parts of the economy by 50%.
Economists take their best guesses based on the models and understanding they have right now, but it’s not like engineering - it’s notoriously hard to predict what the real causes and impact of anything will be. So you’re absolutely right - everything is an estimate because the system is inherently chaotic.
It’s less to do with “tiny variables” and more with the fact that the foundation of the “system” is the capricious whims of human fancy.
“Economist” falls in the same category as “alchemist”, “astrologist”, “psychologist”, etc.
Also it’s the dumbest religion