“I’m the nominee of the Democratic Party. No one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving," he said in a call to the broader campaign

  • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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    6 months ago

    I mean, this is the kind of messaging we should expect from the office until the exact moment he flips. There isn’t anything really “new” in this BBC article, its mostly a rehash of several other articles and polls that have come out since last Thursday.

    I’m still holding out for an announcement this evening/ tomorrow morning, but I am becoming less confident in that. I’m still confident that Biden isn’t going to be the nominee, but he’s creating a significant cost associated with him continuing to run as a lost-cause candidate. We need to move on and regroup, and we’re running out of time to do so.

    At this point, Biden needs to basically recover 30 points in the polling to overcome the disadvantage we know he carries going into a general (we have seen how he underperforms his polling on election day; we also know that Trump typically outperforms his polling on election day). A thirty point swing at this point is a statistical impossibility, for those being practical about the matter. I can post the analysis again, but no swing of that magnitude has ever happened this close to election day. Ever. Based on his current polling, Biden has a less than 1% probability of winning, which is to say, basically impossible.