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That lady is wearing an empire waist top which flares out around the hips so it’s going to be pretty hard to tell whether she has belly fat, a baby bump, or a six-pack underneath. I don’t know why someone would feel confident enough to congratulate her on pregnancy when they can’t even see her belly.
With that bow on it, it strikes me as maternity. Fortunately I learned not to comment on people’s pregnancies until the child is 12 or so.