For more than a decade, the United States has faced a relentless and heartbreaking increase in fatal drug overdoses driven by synthetic opioids. A new analysis suggests this trend has suddenly reversed due to a major disruption in the global supply chain of illicit fentanyl. Published in Science, the study indicates that regulatory actions taken by the Chinese government, following high-level diplomatic engagement with the Biden administration, may be the primary driver behind this unexpected decline in mortality.
The events you’re describing are the history of every major world power. The global power that hasn’t participated in numerous atrocities does not exist.
The difference here is the loss of domestic rule of law and its cascading downstream effects for global cooperation and trade, which yes, will create significant future problems for the US and its brand. This will become more evident in a year to a year-and-a-half when the post-tariff trade agreements take effect, for a start. China is the obvious beneficiary.
But could get a whole lot worse a whole lot faster depending on how far Donald decides to push his unilateral warmongering, and whether or not Congress does anything about it.
Almost as though power is accrued at the expense of the vulnerable.
The only countries that the US has alienated are ones it is explicitly sanctioning. Nobody else is actually cutting ties.
China’s the trade-alternative for countries under US sanctions, precisely because Trump’s done a ham-fisted job of diplomacizing with his counterparts overseas. But a future Pete Buttigieg administration can patch that up if he chooses. There is more to be gained by doing business with the US than with Venezuela or Iran or Cuba. Chinese leaders know that and act accordingly.
Sure. Or it could come to a grinding halt if Trump loses control of Congress and falls into lame duck status three years early. Already, we’re seeing sharp divides even inside the GOP, which already operates on thin margins in the face of a Dem election wave.
Plenty of precedent for an unpopular President to get sidelined by skilled and ambitious legislators. And the US has demonstrated time and time again that it has the manpower and the infrastructure to rebound quickly under strong, competent leadership.
We’re almost certainly going to face a nasty recession going into the next few years. But we’re still a massive, hugely populated, highly technical, heavily industrialized economy. Losing unipolar status isn’t the end of the empire. A bad few years of economic contraction isn’t the end of the world.
Now… the long tail of climate change… that’s another story. If the Colorado River dries up before it reaches Arizona, we’re going to see some shit flying.
A lot of the manpower has been sacked. Replacing those people and getting them to a point of strong competency will take years and years and a lot of money.
Second best time to plant a tree is today. #guesswebettergettowork