AI companies make up 1/3 of the current stock market value in the US. Nvidia alone is 7% of the stock market. 92% of 2025 GDP growth in the US has been from AI. They will get bailed out.
I am at a loss to what that would even look like. The bubble popping would mean the admission of AI (LLMs) not having a viable path to usefulness or return, so then what would a bail out even be? Money? To what end, the bubble would have burst and the idea of AI (LLMs) being anything but a money pit would be what makes the bubble burst in the first place. Unless they can show a path to profit (they can’t) then the bubble will burst in time or continue in an endless zombie state where they just pretend that somehow AI (LLMs) are the future while burning capital. If it does go into a zombie state (as so many other things in the us market are becoming) then the whole market will just slowly fail as the “hype” turns into disappointment. The only reason that the zombie state would be preferable is that entities need to invest their money somewhere and maybe some other thing in the market can take AI (LLMs) place, but even then why bother bailing out anyone?
Bail out almost anyone that bought tech stocks? Seems unlikely, and it would be basically admitting the end of the stock markets legitimacy. Bailouts tend to be for companies on the edge of collapse.
I wanna say you’re wrong, because AI is absolutely not an essential service - like say a water or power company failing would be (or arguably banks). But knowing how deeply the AI tech bros have sucked up to and supported Trump I have to sigh and agree with you that they will probably be rescued from their own stupidity by the taxpayer.
Also, no one wants US bonds right now, so we couldn’t borrow our way out of it even if we wanted to. We’d just have to print like a trillion or more dollars all at once
Shorting means you expect the shit to go down in value. Usually to short something you borrow a stock from someone (not everyone can borrow stocks), pay the fee to the source, sell it for 100, wait, buy it back for 90, give it back to the original owner. You made 100 - 90 - fee.
Borrow 1000 usd from a bank (1), sell if for your target currency (2) that you think will raise compares to usd, wait, exchange 1000 usd from the target currency (2) and give it back to bank + rates (1).
You could always play the foreign exchange market. It’s an interesting idea, usually quite stupid, but if you get the timing of the USD collapse right, there’s money to be made.
Really anything that has value outside of a currency, and the funny part is that raw materials often out preform other ways of investing like GICs. Not talking about silver or gold but like a literal ton of copper or iron ore.
Ha, the sad part is that meth use will increase inversely relative to the average households buying power. Meth is always affordable… just need to rip the wires out of your houses skin.
I first noticed the raw material value oddity was years ago when a bank was trying to sell me on a saving product, the return was below inflation and therefor useless. So I looked it up and if I bought a large amount of lead, and put it in my yard the lead cube would (even with the lead being loss into my grass) be worth enough after 10 years to give a better return then what the bank was offering.
The only possible customer for committed datacenter projects is the US government. the bailout is just buying all the datacenter time… because if not, China wins. Amazon, despite no congressional appropriations yet, has announced $50B datacenter to supply government customers.
China wins what? Except if they already won by far, they have similar AI, with similarly high costs and similarly low value, similarly not worth it. Either they also invest big and will crash just as hard, or they don’t and they’re just enjoying the show of US suiciding its economy through AI.
If you ever stream cable news in the background during business hours. experts will come on to tell you that if the US doesn’t bankrupt itself, then Russia or China wins. The only remaining hope for US economy seems to be to beat China at AI, because it can’t beat it at anything else. So, all the money for military, and AI to help military make Skynet, which will mostly be used to ensure establishment can control/kill Americans who don’t support Skynet for Israel supremacist rule over the US, is simply a continuation of the tautology of “all US money for militarist US establishment control over all of you”, but with more efficient AI.
I think you’re part right. I think they’ll attempt a bailout, but I don’t believe Trump’s appointments and the administration they’re creating have the skill to plan or execute a bailout (or admit to failure enough to identify that they need one in a timely manner)
They’re more likely to ram the economy full speed into rock bottom, then blame an outgroup (“the Democrats did this”) and pretend nothing could have been done.
they’ll try to get bailed out but you would have to bail out so many companies it’s not feasible. you cant just bail out one of these companies. they all propped their stock value up on each other, so unless you bail out every company in the tech sector, there will still be trillions of market cap wiped out.
this is a good thing though. it will mostly only affect those who are overly invested in ultimately unprofitable tech, and the rest of us will be able to buy cheap stock for companies affected like Google and Amazon that will be hit massively but obviously are not just gonna go out of business. it’s similar to the covid drop. sucked for rich people but for the average person it wasn’t a massive issue and even had money making opportunities attached to it as these big companies scrambled.
AI companies make up 1/3 of the current stock market value in the US. Nvidia alone is 7% of the stock market. 92% of 2025 GDP growth in the US has been from AI. They will get bailed out.
I am at a loss to what that would even look like. The bubble popping would mean the admission of AI (LLMs) not having a viable path to usefulness or return, so then what would a bail out even be? Money? To what end, the bubble would have burst and the idea of AI (LLMs) being anything but a money pit would be what makes the bubble burst in the first place. Unless they can show a path to profit (they can’t) then the bubble will burst in time or continue in an endless zombie state where they just pretend that somehow AI (LLMs) are the future while burning capital. If it does go into a zombie state (as so many other things in the us market are becoming) then the whole market will just slowly fail as the “hype” turns into disappointment. The only reason that the zombie state would be preferable is that entities need to invest their money somewhere and maybe some other thing in the market can take AI (LLMs) place, but even then why bother bailing out anyone?
Investors could be bailed out. As in you invested 10e11$, so now the government gives you that money back.
Bail out almost anyone that bought tech stocks? Seems unlikely, and it would be basically admitting the end of the stock markets legitimacy. Bailouts tend to be for companies on the edge of collapse.
I wanna say you’re wrong, because AI is absolutely not an essential service - like say a water or power company failing would be (or arguably banks). But knowing how deeply the AI tech bros have sucked up to and supported Trump I have to sigh and agree with you that they will probably be rescued from their own stupidity by the taxpayer.
I think they’re too big to bail out at this point
Also, no one wants US bonds right now, so we couldn’t borrow our way out of it even if we wanted to. We’d just have to print like a trillion or more dollars all at once
With the financial genius in the white house, I wouldn’t rule that out.
How do I short a currency?
Relative to a second currency, as a derivative on the foreign exchange market.
Same way you short anything else, you borrow it, sell it, and then buy it back once the price has dropped, and return it.
You buy foreign currency and then sell it back for USD when you want to realise it.
Therein lies the rub; I’m not starting with USD, nor do I want to be
Shorting means you expect the shit to go down in value. Usually to short something you borrow a stock from someone (not everyone can borrow stocks), pay the fee to the source, sell it for 100, wait, buy it back for 90, give it back to the original owner. You made 100 - 90 - fee.
Borrow 1000 usd from a bank (1), sell if for your target currency (2) that you think will raise compares to usd, wait, exchange 1000 usd from the target currency (2) and give it back to bank + rates (1).
What is left over in currency (2) is your profit.
You could always play the foreign exchange market. It’s an interesting idea, usually quite stupid, but if you get the timing of the USD collapse right, there’s money to be made.
Gold, commodities, etc.
Really anything that has value outside of a currency, and the funny part is that raw materials often out preform other ways of investing like GICs. Not talking about silver or gold but like a literal ton of copper or iron ore.
Now the trick is where to put the stuff…
Meth powers activate.
Ha, the sad part is that meth use will increase inversely relative to the average households buying power. Meth is always affordable… just need to rip the wires out of your houses skin.
I first noticed the raw material value oddity was years ago when a bank was trying to sell me on a saving product, the return was below inflation and therefor useless. So I looked it up and if I bought a large amount of lead, and put it in my yard the lead cube would (even with the lead being loss into my grass) be worth enough after 10 years to give a better return then what the bank was offering.
Buy another.
The only possible customer for committed datacenter projects is the US government. the bailout is just buying all the datacenter time… because if not, China wins. Amazon, despite no congressional appropriations yet, has announced $50B datacenter to supply government customers.
China wins what? Except if they already won by far, they have similar AI, with similarly high costs and similarly low value, similarly not worth it. Either they also invest big and will crash just as hard, or they don’t and they’re just enjoying the show of US suiciding its economy through AI.
If you ever stream cable news in the background during business hours. experts will come on to tell you that if the US doesn’t bankrupt itself, then Russia or China wins. The only remaining hope for US economy seems to be to beat China at AI, because it can’t beat it at anything else. So, all the money for military, and AI to help military make Skynet, which will mostly be used to ensure establishment can control/kill Americans who don’t support Skynet for Israel supremacist rule over the US, is simply a continuation of the tautology of “all US money for militarist US establishment control over all of you”, but with more efficient AI.
I think you’re part right. I think they’ll attempt a bailout, but I don’t believe Trump’s appointments and the administration they’re creating have the skill to plan or execute a bailout (or admit to failure enough to identify that they need one in a timely manner)
They’re more likely to ram the economy full speed into rock bottom, then blame an outgroup (“the Democrats did this”) and pretend nothing could have been done.
they’ll try to get bailed out but you would have to bail out so many companies it’s not feasible. you cant just bail out one of these companies. they all propped their stock value up on each other, so unless you bail out every company in the tech sector, there will still be trillions of market cap wiped out.
this is a good thing though. it will mostly only affect those who are overly invested in ultimately unprofitable tech, and the rest of us will be able to buy cheap stock for companies affected like Google and Amazon that will be hit massively but obviously are not just gonna go out of business. it’s similar to the covid drop. sucked for rich people but for the average person it wasn’t a massive issue and even had money making opportunities attached to it as these big companies scrambled.