Microsoft is so incredibly fucked when the AI bubble starts to burst. They’ve abandoned so many of their other projects and customers to go all-in on it.
Seriously this, it would take something like the PCI or SOX declaring Windows outside of compliance for Microsoft to die from bad business decisions in the US. Although German gov switching to Linux starts treading a path through
They will be fine. They are second most valuable company in the world. They have money to throw around and their source of income still seem inexhaustible. A few new Linux users won’t even make a dent.
Sorry to be so blunt, but it’s the truth no matter what we are wishing for.
I keep parroting this, but in the next couple of years, I think there will be a couple of giants that fall. I work in ServiceNow and they, like many others, have gone all in on AI. Their problem is that they were slower than some, their solution is half baked at best, and it’s prohibitively expensive. Nobody is paying 10s of thousands+ extra for the licensing to be able to run agents, and less are paying the extra licensing required for the users to be able to use that agent.
I’ve now been pulled into copilot studio, and yet again it’s another product rushed to market that isn’t ready for the big stage. Dog shit documentation and training material, and terrible environment design.
All of these big players have invested so much money in adding AI, nobody wants it, and now they’re all hemoragging money.
Hate to tell you, but we’re all incredibly fucked. Least of all Microsoft. They know what they’re doing. They most certainly already have a plan for recovery, as they know it’s coming just as well as everyone else.
I think that Microsoft will continue in some form regardless of what happens with this bubble because they have huge amounts of physical assets and cash on hand.
That said, their market position in any given sector they’re in might not be as invincible as it seems. There are corporations that were titans of their industries, including technology, that either don’t exist or are ghosts of their former selves all in far less than a lifetime.
Kodak, Xerox, Bell Labs, IBM, and Yahoo all looked like unstoppable juggernauts when I was a kid, and my own kids haven’t even heard of some of them.
Copilot, Github, LinkedIn, ChatGPT are the ones that come to mind. All of them have started to degrade in quality in one way or another, and with the exception of LinkedIn, they all have competitors that could potentially, over the long haul, could dismantle Microsoft. They’re also running out of places to extend and extinguish.
It probably won’t happen in one or two lifetimes, but enough cracks in a dam accumulate and eventually the whole thing breaks.
Microsoft is so incredibly fucked when the AI bubble starts to burst. They’ve abandoned so many of their other projects and customers to go all-in on it.
I dunno. I feel like they are like the cable company now. They will jus sit there twiddling their nipples while we are all fucked.
I need the cable company (or similar) due to the fact that infrastructure is hard to deploy, and we need Internet to participate in society.
Nobody needs Microsoft cause every single one of their products has an alternative that’s at least as good.
They survive by courting enterprises, but many of them can also switch away if they want.
On a personal basis that works, but they are so corporately entrenched that their products getting shitier matters quite little.
Nothing like FOSS when it comes to cost cutting.
Seriously this, it would take something like the PCI or SOX declaring Windows outside of compliance for Microsoft to die from bad business decisions in the US. Although German gov switching to Linux starts treading a path through
Oh really, how bummed would they be?
They will be fine. They are second most valuable company in the world. They have money to throw around and their source of income still seem inexhaustible. A few new Linux users won’t even make a dent.
Sorry to be so blunt, but it’s the truth no matter what we are wishing for.
I keep parroting this, but in the next couple of years, I think there will be a couple of giants that fall. I work in ServiceNow and they, like many others, have gone all in on AI. Their problem is that they were slower than some, their solution is half baked at best, and it’s prohibitively expensive. Nobody is paying 10s of thousands+ extra for the licensing to be able to run agents, and less are paying the extra licensing required for the users to be able to use that agent.
I’ve now been pulled into copilot studio, and yet again it’s another product rushed to market that isn’t ready for the big stage. Dog shit documentation and training material, and terrible environment design.
All of these big players have invested so much money in adding AI, nobody wants it, and now they’re all hemoragging money.
Sounds like a lot of company these days.
Hate to tell you, but we’re all incredibly fucked. Least of all Microsoft. They know what they’re doing. They most certainly already have a plan for recovery, as they know it’s coming just as well as everyone else.
It won’t make a difference.
What other projects they abandoned do you see as so critical that it would break Microsoft?
I think that Microsoft will continue in some form regardless of what happens with this bubble because they have huge amounts of physical assets and cash on hand.
That said, their market position in any given sector they’re in might not be as invincible as it seems. There are corporations that were titans of their industries, including technology, that either don’t exist or are ghosts of their former selves all in far less than a lifetime.
Kodak, Xerox, Bell Labs, IBM, and Yahoo all looked like unstoppable juggernauts when I was a kid, and my own kids haven’t even heard of some of them.
Copilot, Github, LinkedIn, ChatGPT are the ones that come to mind. All of them have started to degrade in quality in one way or another, and with the exception of LinkedIn, they all have competitors that could potentially, over the long haul, could dismantle Microsoft. They’re also running out of places to extend and extinguish.
It probably won’t happen in one or two lifetimes, but enough cracks in a dam accumulate and eventually the whole thing breaks.