The technological struggles are in some ways beside the point. The financial bet on artificial general intelligence is so big that failure could cause a depression.
Everything is always 5 to 10 years away until it happens. Agi cpuld happen any day in the next 1000 years. There is a good chance you won’t see it coming.
Pretty much this. LLMs came out of left field going from morning to what it is more really quickly.
If expect the same of AGI, not correlated to who spent the most or is best at LLM. It might happen decades from now or in the next couple of months. It’s a breakthrough that is just going to come out of left field when it happens.
LLMs weren’t out of left field. Chatbots have been in development since the '90s at least. Probably even longer. And word prediction has been around at least a decade. People just don’t pay attention until it’s commercially available.
Most ai research has serious and obvious scaling problems. It did well at first, but scaling up the training didn’t significantly improve the results. LLMs went from more of the same to a gold rush the day it was revealed that they scaled “well” (relatively speaking). They then went through orders of magnitude improvements very quickly because they could (unlike previous ai training models which wouldn’t have benefited like this).
We’ve had chatbots for decades, but with a the same low capability ceiling that most other old techniques had, they really were a different beast to modern LLMs with their stupidly excessive training regimes.
Also not likely in the lifetime of anyone alive today. It’s a much harder problem than most want to believe.
Everything is always 5 to 10 years away until it happens. Agi cpuld happen any day in the next 1000 years. There is a good chance you won’t see it coming.
Pretty much this. LLMs came out of left field going from morning to what it is more really quickly.
If expect the same of AGI, not correlated to who spent the most or is best at LLM. It might happen decades from now or in the next couple of months. It’s a breakthrough that is just going to come out of left field when it happens.
LLMs weren’t out of left field. Chatbots have been in development since the '90s at least. Probably even longer. And word prediction has been around at least a decade. People just don’t pay attention until it’s commercially available.
Modern llms were a left field development.
Most ai research has serious and obvious scaling problems. It did well at first, but scaling up the training didn’t significantly improve the results. LLMs went from more of the same to a gold rush the day it was revealed that they scaled “well” (relatively speaking). They then went through orders of magnitude improvements very quickly because they could (unlike previous ai training models which wouldn’t have benefited like this).
We’ve had chatbots for decades, but with a the same low capability ceiling that most other old techniques had, they really were a different beast to modern LLMs with their stupidly excessive training regimes.