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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • It’s pretty much a vibe coding issue. What you describe I can recall being advocated forevet, the project manager’s dtram that you model and spec things out enough and perfectly model the world in your test cases, then you are golden. Except the world has never been so convenient and you bank on the programming being reasonably workable by people to compensate.

    Problem is people who think they can replace understanding with vibe coding. If you can only vibe code, you will end up with problems you cannot fix and the LLM can’t either. If you can fix the problems, then you are not inclined to toss overly long chunks of LLM stuff because they generate ugly hard to maintain code that tends to violate all sorts of best practices for programming.


  • This all presumes that OpenAI can get there and further is exclusively in a position to get there.

    Most experts I’ve seen don’t see a logical connection between LLM and AGI. OpenAI has all their eggs in that basket.

    To the extent LLM are useful, OpenAI arguably isn’t even the best at it. Anthropic tends to make it more useful than OpenAI and now Google’s is outperforming it on relatively pointless benchmarks that were the bragging point of OpenAI. They aren’t the best, most useful, or cheapest. The were first, but that first mover advantage hardly matters when you get passed.

    Maybe if they were demonstrating advanced robotics control, but other companies are mostly showing that whole OpenAI remains “just a chatbot”, with more useful usage of their services going through third parties that tend to be LLM agnostic, and increasingly I see people select non OpenAI models as their preference.





  • But the reason for the expense is largely the weight.

    Yes we can at great expense support massive weights. But even in skyscrapers, you aren’t expecting to just cram every floor with equipment that weighs over a ton and supported by less than a square meter of floor.

    It’s not just armchair engineering, i work in the industry and commonly you have racks preferring the ground floor and weight restrictions going up and even marked paths that the racks need to stay on when on upper floors due to limitations of the reinforcements.

    Skyscrapers are largely impractical structures done for the sake of showing off, with any value based on keeping people close to each other. No one builds a skyscraper by itself miles from anything else. This is where they build the datacenters because they don’t need proximity.



  • Keep in mind that the critical affordability issue as it landed in the news as we recovered from COVID and also supply chain impacts from Ukraine war. During his first term, inflation was pretty much the same as it had been since 1990. Then during Biden’s term, there was 7% then a further 6.5% on top of that and then another 3.4% on top of that and then 2.9% on top of that. So there’s a correlation that things are now even more rapidly unaffordable and in such cases the president inevitably gets the blame whether it makes sense or not.

    His first term was pretty incompetent and corrupt, but got nowhere near as maliciously and successfully corrupt as this go around. On the matter of deaths, while the USA by the data was among the worst, almost in the 10 worst nations for per-capita death, the subjective coverage was “globally lots of people are dying”, it’s not Trump’s fault specifically in that perception of “no one has it good”.

    Generally speaking, in these circumstances people are just voting against the state of the way things are with less high minded ideals. Trump lost because people hated things under COVID. Harris lost because the economic reaction to recovery was all messed up and so a change was demanded.

    I share the shock that people actually went for it, but I’m not surprised that this seemingly nonsensical situation could happen.







  • Note that this outage by itself, based on their chart, was kicking out errors over the span of about 8 hours. This one outage would have almost entirely blown their downtown allowance under 99.9% availability criteria.

    If one big provider actually provided 99.9999%, that would be 30 seconds of all outages over a typical year. Not even long enough for people to generally be sure there was an ‘outage’ as a user. That wouldn’t be bad at all.



  • The republicans have started trying to blame Obama for this years hikes…

    It’s quite a leap, but they are trying to say ACA blew it all up, but it just took almost 20 years for the pain to hit.

    It’s a narrative that really only works for the ride or die republicans, but it’s all they have to try, since they have no actual answer they want to propose…