Here’s my prediction, but I’d like others to contribute their predictions as well. I think it’s important that we make ourselves aware of signs before they start showing, and that we have a record to point to if things play out exactly as we predict.
- Threads launches, federates with the 'verse, everything works well and actually seems hunky-dory. Even companies/restaurants/officials that use a Facebook page might be accessible via federation!
- Threads starts allowing their users to embed and interact with content from Facebook, Instagram, & possibly WhatsApp using Threads. Federated communities will be able to embed some of that content as well. Also, InstaWhatsBook users will be able to link to Threads posts as well.
- Sooner or later, embedded content from the Meta’s 'verse will encourage and eventually require you to be signed into Meta. This will be for the “security” and “privacy” of Meta users. But don’t worry, you’ll simply be able to link your federated instance’s account to a Meta account real easy, and even keep your credentials & karma status synced as well!
- Eventually posts from Threads users will be restricted even further and you’ll have to visit their site in order to “securely” view that content. Don’t worry though, you synced your account before so it’s not really an issue to just hop over.
- People get tired of having to hop over to Threads for most posts, and since their credentials are synced to both, it doesn’t really hurt to just stay on Threads and view federated posts from there.
- Meta changes the nature of their karma system so not everything syncs anymore. Of course you get the most benefit if you’re posting on Threads.
- Meta finally decides that federating “just isn’t in their best interest” and shuts down federation, leaving a husk of the Fediverse behind.
I was thinking. People like to point out EEE (embrace, extend, extinguish). But from my point of view, I only see EE (embrace, extend). Why do I leave behind the third E, the extinguish one?
Because to extinguish the fediverse, Threads must become a microblogging link aggregator video photo blogging music app. Right now it’s only a microblogging app. Besides, it has to destroy every instance of every service in the fediverse, and, you know, according to this place, there are 12.340 instances, only counting those of Mastodon. Can Threads destroy all those 12.340 Mastodon instances, plus all the Lemmy instances, plus all the PeerTube instances, and so on?
Meta already is already 5/6 of the things you listed out there. Threads is the microblogging product, but Meta is the platform.
They don’t need to destroy every single piece of competition in EEE. That happens much more passively.
They just need to make the others slightly worse to use. A bit at a time. Until a significant decline happens. Until enough users are annoyed about their “green bubbles” or whatever so as to make the switch. To culturally enforce the superiority of their product over others. If you understand the EE part, then you must understand the inevitability of the third. When was the last time you logged into IRC or ICQ? For most people, the answer is “What’s that?” because XMPP and the interoperable protocols in its halo were extinguished. Google Talk and the like joining the arena looked like they would make the sphere better, but instead killed it.
Meta is a publicly-traded company in a capital market. The way they will behave – selfishly and without care of the treatment of their users and customers – is preordained. Their motivations are necessarily corrupt and you need to defend against that.
Meta stands to gain very, very little from maintaining a vibrant and healthy greater fediverse space. It doesn’t need to deliberately intend to harm federation, it just needs to exist with all its power and money and be selfish while doing it.
Ultimately, I don’t know that federation with Meta is damnation for the fediverse. But the risk seems too great to me.
leaving a husk of the fediverse behind
Even if everything you describe happens, that “husk” will be what we have today, probably even bigger. I’m okay with that.
I have faith in this as well.
It would’ve been fine except Meta had 200 engineers “helping” to build ActivityPub and it’s gotten pretty convoluted and hard to develop for now.
It’s no problem for Meta and their hundreds of engineers but quite a bit more difficult for Joe Average Developer to contribute or even understand what’s going on with it. The barrier to entry has gotten too high. All you can do now is use Threads or find a new place to go.
I do too.
Side note: your avatar is awesome.Thanks! My wife made it for me.
Wives kick ass.
I’m in the camp of welcoming meta to the fediverse, BUT - not bending over backwards.
If they start making changes that affect federation for them, then that is their problem. Treat meta as a platform, no different to mastodon.
Remember that the fediverse consists of more than just Mastodon.
If meta makes a change and suddenly pixelfed can’t federate properly with meta anymore, it’ll be a shame, but it does not mean that pixelfed should make changes and add workarounds so that it is able to speak to meta again.Meta might think they have the power to do this, but they only have that power if we behave like they do.
If instead we take an attitude of, it’s fine for you to be here, while you are being a good citizen, but if you start making demands - you are on your own.If they start making changes that affect federation for them, then that is their problem.
No, that’s not their problem, that’s ours too. I don’t think that you know the whole story. They are not gonna make changes just on their side, they are making some admins of the fediverse sign an NDA too:
https://433.world/@Yuvalne/110566872225488614
Explain the NDA please.
Treat meta as a platform, no different to mastodon.
Mastodon doesn’t make people sign NDA afaik. Neither does lemmy or kbin.
If meta makes a change and suddenly pixelfed can’t federate properly with meta anymore, it’ll be a shame, but it does not mean that pixelfed should make changes and add workarounds so that it is able to speak to meta again.
Not if pixelfed has signed an NDA with Meta.
Meta might think they have the power to do this, but they only have that power if we behave like they do.
That’s probably the point of the NDA Meta is making people sign.
I was on board with your position before, until I read this NDA stuff. If the admins are making changes then the fediverse is dead.
NDAs are pretty standard practice in corporate environments, and they don’t automatically mean there’s something nefarious going on.
I don’t see why we should accept the NDA practice in the fediverse. We’ve been naive in the past, now I would avise way more caution.
To me signing an NDA or refusing to sign the fedipact would be a red alert for the platform.
Any corporation is going to make non employees sign an NDA before showing them internal information. This is not a red flag in and of itself.
I guess we will never know since everything is under NDA, right? So this is the end of the sharing of information. I see no good reason to trust an admin who signed an NDA with Meta in this context. If average Joe can run an instance in a container then I’m sure that Meta can do it too.
Reminder about Zuck:
“They trust me — dumb fucks,” says Zuckerberg in one of the instant messages, first published by former Valleywag Nicholas Carlson at Silicon Alley Insider, and now confirmed by Zuckerberg himself in Jose Antonio Vargas’s New Yorker piece. Zuckerberg now tells Vargas, “I think I’ve grown and learned a lot” since those instant messages.
