Off-and-on trying out an account over at @[email protected] due to scraping bots bogging down lemmy.today to the point of near-unusability.

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Cake day: October 4th, 2023

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  • Yeah, that’s something that I’ve wondered about myself, what the long run is. Not principally “can we make an AI that is more-appealing than humans”, though I suppose that that’s a specific case, but…we’re only going to make more-compelling forms of entertainment, better video games. Recreational drugs aren’t going to become less addictive. If we get better at defeating the reward mechanisms in our brain that evolved to drive us towards advantageous activities…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirehead_(science_fiction)

    In science fiction, wireheading is a term associated with fictional or futuristic applications[1] of brain stimulation reward, the act of directly triggering the brain’s reward center by electrical stimulation of an inserted wire, for the purpose of ‘short-circuiting’ the brain’s normal reward process and artificially inducing pleasure. Scientists have successfully performed brain stimulation reward on rats (1950s)[2] and humans (1960s). This stimulation does not appear to lead to tolerance or satiation in the way that sex or drugs do.[3] The term is sometimes associated with science fiction writer Larry Niven, who coined the term in his 1969 novella Death by Ecstasy[4] (Known Space series).[5][6] In the philosophy of artificial intelligence, the term is used to refer to AI systems that hack their own reward channel.[3]

    More broadly, the term can also refer to various kinds of interaction between human beings and technology.[1]

    Wireheading, like other forms of brain alteration, is often treated as dystopian in science fiction literature.[6]

    In Larry Niven’s Known Space stories, a “wirehead” is someone who has been fitted with an electronic brain implant known as a “droud” in order to stimulate the pleasure centers of their brain. Wireheading is the most addictive habit known (Louis Wu is the only given example of a recovered addict), and wireheads usually die from neglecting their basic needs in favour of the ceaseless pleasure. Wireheading is so powerful and easy that it becomes an evolutionary pressure, selecting against that portion of humanity without self-control.

    Now, of course, you’d expect that to be a powerful evolutionary selector, sure — if only people who are predisposed to avoid such things pass on offspring, that’d tend to rapidly increase the percentage of people predisposed to do so — but the flip side is the question of whether evolutionary pressure on the timescale of human generations can keep up with our technological advancement, which happens very quickly.

    There’s some kind of dark comic that I saw — I thought that it might be Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal, but I’ve never been able to find it again, so maybe it was something else — which was a wordless comic that portrayed a society becoming so technologically advanced that it basically consumes itself, defeats its own essential internal mechanisms. IIRC it showed something like a society becoming a ring that was just stimulating itself until it disappeared.

    It’s a possible answer to the Fermi paradox:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#It_is_the_nature_of_intelligent_life_to_destroy_itself

    The Fermi paradox is the discrepancy between the lack of conclusive evidence of advanced extraterrestrial life and the apparently high likelihood of its existence.[1][2][3]

    The paradox is named after physicist Enrico Fermi, who informally posed the question—remembered by Emil Konopinski as “But where is everybody?”—during a 1950 conversation at Los Alamos with colleagues Konopinski, Edward Teller, and Herbert York.

    Evolutionary explanations

    It is the nature of intelligent life to destroy itself

    This is the argument that technological civilizations may usually or invariably destroy themselves before or shortly after developing radio or spaceflight technology. The astrophysicist Sebastian von Hoerner stated that the progress of science and technology on Earth was driven by two factors—the struggle for domination and the desire for an easy life. The former potentially leads to complete destruction, while the latter may lead to biological or mental degeneration.[98] Possible means of annihilation via major global issues, where global interconnectedness actually makes humanity more vulnerable than resilient,[99] are many,[100] including war, accidental environmental contamination or damage, the development of biotechnology,[101] synthetic life like mirror life,[102] resource depletion, climate change,[103] or artificial intelligence. This general theme is explored both in fiction and in scientific hypotheses.[104]


  • Now some of those users gather on Discord and Reddit; one of the best-known groups, the subreddit r/MyBoyfriendIsAI, currently boasts 48,000 users.

    I am confident that one way or another, the market will meet demand if it exists, and I think that there is clearly demand for it. It may or may not be OpenAI, it may take a year or two or three for the memory market to stabilize, but if enough people want to basically have interactive erotic literature, it’s going to be available. Maybe else will take a model and provide it as a service, train it up on appropriate literature. Maybe people will run models themselves on local hardware — in 2026, that still requires some technical aptitude, but making a simpler-to-deploy software package or even distributing it as an all-in-one hardware package is very much doable.

    I’ll also predict that what males and females generally want in such a model probably differs, and that there will probably be services that specialize in that, much as how there are companies that make soap operas and romance novels that focus on women, which tend to differ from the counterparts that focus on men.

    I also think that there are still some challenges that remain in early 2026. For one, current LLMs still have a comparatively-constrained context window. Either their mutable memory needs to exist in a different form, or automated RAG needs to be better, or the hardware or software needs to be able to handle larger contexts.


  • I don’t know about stopping it if someone is sufficiently determined to get in, but if it’s a repeated problem, I suppose that you could put something that looks interesting to steal in the car with an AirTag-type tracking device or similar hidden in it and then provide the police with the thief’s track if they bite.

    Putting visible cameras all over might deter some people.

    I’d guess that parking in a garage would help, but you say elsewhere that that wasn’t an option here.



  • Thanks, but was an error on my part; was trying to list stuff that didn’t have a sequel or remake. Hadn’t ever heard of them, but apparently there were two Indian film remakes and a television remake:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12_Angry_Men_(1957_film)

    The 1986 Hindi film Ek Ruka Hua Faisla (“a pending decision”) and 2012 Kannada film Dashamukha (“ten faces”) are Indian remakes of the film, with almost identical storylines. The former has been adapted as another Indian Bengali film Shotyi Bole Shotyi Kichhu Nei which was released in January 2025.[71]

    In 1997, a television remake of the film under the same title was directed by William Friedkin and produced by Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer. In the newer version, the judge is a woman, four of the jurors are black, and the ninth juror is not the only senior citizen, but the overall plot remains intact. Modernizations include not smoking in the jury room, changes in references to pop culture and sports figures and income, references to execution by lethal injection as opposed to the electric chair, more race-related dialogue, and casual profanity.



  • If I’m traveling or I wipe my device or get a new one, I would have to add the new key to many servers as authorized keys,

    So, I don’t want to get into a huge argument over the best way to deal with things, since everyone has their own use cases, but if that’s your only concern, you have a list of hosts that you want to put the key on, and you still have a key for another device, that shouldn’t be terribly difficult. Generate your new keypair for your new device. Then on a Linux machine, something like:

    $ cat username-host-pairs.txt
    me@host1
    me@host2
    me@host3
    $ cat username-host-pairs.txt|xargs -n1 ssh-copy-id -i new-device-key-file-id_ed25519.pub
    

    That should use your other device’s private key to authenticate to the servers in question and copy the new device’s pubkey to the accounts on the host in question. Won’t need password access enabled.




  • solving word hunger?

    So, this was principally artificial selection to modify plants rather than genetic engineering (and I think that most people who say ‘biotech’ in 2026 mean genetic engineering), but there were a lot of people who did anticipate global famines until we made some substantial technological advancements with plants some decades back:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution

    The Green Revolution, or the Third Agricultural Revolution, was a period during which technology transfer initiatives resulted in a significant increase in crop yields.[1][2] These changes in agriculture initially emerged in developed countries in the early 20th century and subsequently spread globally until the late 1980s.[3] In the late 1960s, farmers began incorporating new technologies, including high-yielding varieties of cereals, particularly dwarf wheat and rice, and the widespread use of chemical fertilizers (to produce their high yields, the new seeds require far more fertilizer than traditional varieties[4]), pesticides, and controlled irrigation.

    At the same time, newer methods of cultivation, including mechanization, were adopted, often as a package of practices to replace traditional agricultural technology.[5] This was often in conjunction with loans conditional on policy changes being made by the developing nations adopting them, such as privatizing fertilizer manufacture and distribution.[4]

    Both the Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation were heavily involved in its initial development in Mexico.[6][7] A key leader was agricultural scientist Norman Borlaug, the “Father of the Green Revolution”, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970. He is credited with saving over a billion people from starvation.[8] Another important scientific figure was Yuan Longping, whose work on hybrid rice varieties is credited with saving at least as many lives.[9] The basic approach was the development of high-yielding varieties of cereal grains, expansion of irrigation infrastructure, modernization of management techniques, distribution of hybridized seeds, synthetic fertilizers, and pesticides to farmers. As crops began to reach the maximum improvement possible through selective breeding, genetic modification technologies were developed to allow for continued efforts.[10][11]

    Studies show that the Green Revolution contributed to widespread eradication of poverty, averted hunger for millions, raised incomes, increased greenhouse gas emissions, reduced land use for agriculture, and contributed to declines in infant mortality.[12][13][14][15][16][17][excessive citations]


  • I have a black and white laser printer — a Brother, FWIW — that works great. It sits there and when I print the occasional document, flips on and quietly and quickly does its thing. I remember printers in past decades. Paper jams. Continuous-tractor feed paper having the tractor feeds rip free in the printer. Slow printing. Loud printing. Prints that smeared. Clogging ink nozzles on inkjets.

    It replaced a previous Apple black-and-white laser printer from…probably the early 1990s that I initially got used which also worked fine and worked until the day I threw it out — I just wanted more resolution, which current laser printers could do.

    The only thing that I can really beat the Brother up for is maybe that, like many laser printers, to cut costs on the power supply, it has a huge power spike in what it consumes when it initially comes on; I’d rather just pay for a better power supply. But it’s not enough for me to care that much about it, and if I really want to, I can plug it into power regulation hardware.

    It’s not a photo printer, and so if someone wants to print photos, I can appreciate that a laser printer isn’t ideal for that, but…I also never print photos, and if I did at some point, I’d probably just hit a print shop.


  • For some workloads, yes. I don’t think that the personal computer is going to go away.

    But it also makes a lot of economic and technical sense for some of those workloads.

    Historically — like, think up to about the late 1970s — useful computing hardware was very expensive. And most people didn’t have a requirement to keep computing hardware constantly loaded. In that kind of environment, we built datacenters and it was typical to time-share them. You’d use something like a teletype or some other kind of thin client to access a “real” computer to do your work.

    What happened at the end of the 1970s was that prices came down enough and there was enough capability to do useful work to start putting personal computers in front of everyone. You had enough useful capability to do real computing work locally. They were still quite expensive compared to the great majority of today’s personal computers:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_II

    The original retail price of the computer was US$1,298 (equivalent to $6,700 in 2024)[18][19] with 4 KB of RAM and US$2,638 (equivalent to $13,700 in 2024) with the maximum 48 KB of RAM.

    But they were getting down to the point where they weren’t an unreasonable expense for people who had a use for them.

    At the time, telecommunications infrastructure was much more limited than it was today, so using a “real” computer remotely from many locations was a pain, which also made the PC make sense.

    From about the late 1970s to today, the workloads that have dominated most software packages have been more-or-less serial computation. While “big iron” computers could do faster serial compute than personal computers, it wasn’t radically faster. Video games with dedicated 3D hardware were a notable exception, but those were latency sensitive and bandwidth intensive, especially relative to the available telecommunication infrastructure, so time-sharing remote “big iron” hardware just didn’t make a lot of sense.

    And while we could — and to some extent, did — ramp up serial computational capacity by using more power, there were limits on the returns we could get.

    However, what AI stuff represents has notable differences in workload characteristics. AI requires parallel processing. AI uses expensive hardware. We can throw a lot of power at things to get meaningful, useful increases in compute capability.

    • Just like in the 1970s, the hardware to do competitive AI stuff for many things that we want to do is expensive. Some of that is just short term, like the fact that we don’t have the memory manufacturing capacity in 2026 to meet need, so prices will rise to price out sufficient people that the available chips go to whoever the highest bidders are. That’ll resolve itself one way or another, like via buildout in memory capacity. But some of it is also that the quantities of memory are still pretty expensive. Even at pre-AI-boom prices, if you want the kind of memory that it’s useful to have available — hundreds of gigabytes — you’re going to be significantly increasing the price of a PC, and that’s before whatever the cost of the computation hardware is.

    • Power. Currently, we can usefully scale out parallel compute by using a lot more power. Under current regulations, a laptop that can go on an airline in the US can have an 100 Wh battery and a 100 Wh spare, separate battery. If you pull 100W on a sustained basis, you blow through a battery like that in an hour. A desktop can go further, but is limited by heat and cooling and is going to start running into a limit for US household circuits at something like 1800 W, and is going to be emitting a very considerable amount of heat dumped into a house at that point. Current NVidia hardware pulls over 1kW. A phone can’t do anything like any of the above. The power and cooling demands range from totally unreasonable to at least somewhat problematic. So even if we work out the cost issues, I think that it’s very likely that the power and cooling issues will be a fundamental bound.

    In those conditions, it makes sense for many users to stick the hardware in a datacenter with strong cooling capability and time-share it.

    Now, I personally really favor having local compute capability. I have a dedicated computer, a Framework Desktop, to do AI compute, and also have a 24GB GPU that I bought in significant part to do that. I’m not at all opposed to doing local compute. But at current prices, unless that kind of hardware can provide a lot more benefit than it currently does to most, most people are probably not going to buy local hardware.

    If your workload keeps hardware active 1% of the time — and maybe use as a chatbot might do that — then it is something like a hundred times cheaper in terms of the hardware cost to have the hardware timeshared. If the hardware is expensive — and current Nvidia hardware runs tens of thousands of dollars, too rich for most people’s taste unless they’re getting Real Work done with the stuff — it looks a lot more appealing to time-share it.

    There are some workloads for which there might be constant load, like maybe constantly analyzing speech, doing speech recognition. For those, then yeah, local hardware might make sense. But…if weaker hardware can sufficiently solve that problem, then we’re still back to the “expensive hardware in the datacenter” thing.

    Now, a lot of Nvidia’s costs are going to be fixed, not variable. And assuming that AMD and so forth catch up, in a competitive market, will come down — with scale, one can spread fixed costs out, and only the variable costs will place a floor on hardware costs. So I can maybe buy that, if we hit limits that mean that buying a ton of memory isn’t very interesting, price will come down. But I am not at all sure that the “more electrical power provides more capability” aspect will change. And as long as that holds, it’s likely going to make a lot of sense to use “big iron” hardware remotely.

    What you might see is a computer on the order of, say, a 2022 computer on everyone’s desk…but that a lot of parallel compute workloads are farmed out to datacenters, which have computers more-capable of doing parallel compute there.

    Cloud gaming is a thing. I’m not at all sure that there the cloud will dominate, even though it can leverage parallel compute. There, latency and bandwidth are real issues. You’d have to put enough datacenters close enough to people to make that viable and run enough fiber. And I’m not sure that we’ll ever reach the point where it makes sense to do remote compute for cloud gaming for everyone. Maybe.

    But for AI-type parallel compute workloads, where the bandwidth and latency requirements are a lot less severe, and the useful returns from throwing a lot of electricity at the thing significant…then it might make a lot more sense.

    I’d also point out that my guess is that AI probably will not be the only major parallel-compute application moving forward. Unless we can find some new properties in physics or something like that, we just aren’t advancing serial compute very rapidly any more; things have slowed down for over 20 years now. If you want more performance, as a software developer, there will be ever-greater relative returns from parallelizing problems and running them on parallel hardware.

    I don’t think that, a few years down the road, building a computer comparable to the one you might in 2024 is going to cost more than it did in 2024. I think that people will have PCs.

    But those PCs might running software that will be doing an increasing amount of parallel compute in the cloud, as the years go by.


  • They exist — and in fact, I have an Android tablet in my backpack right now — but a lot of people felt that they were going to become a major computing paradigm, and that hasn’t happened.

    In practice, the PC today is mostly a conventional laptop. Hybrid laptops with touchscreen exist, but they aren’t the norm.

    Mobile OS tablets also exist, but they haven’t managed to take over from smartphones or approach their marketshare, and there are fewer options on the market than there were a few years back; “mobile OS” tablets today are mostly, as best I can tell, a specialized device to use for video-watching with a larger screen than exists on a phone, with a larger screen and better built-in speakers, but without the sensors and radio suite. Not all that much uptake.



  • Flying cars. The idea has intuitive appeal — just drive like normal, but most congestion problems go away!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_car

    We’ve made them, but the tradeoffs that you have to make to get a good road vehicle that is also a good aircraft are very large. The benefits of having a dual-mode vehicle are comparatively limited. I think that absent some kind of dramatic technological revolution, like, I don’t know, making the things out of nanites, we’ll just always be better off with dedicated vehicles of the first sort or the second.

    Maybe we could have call-on-demand aircraft that could air-ferry ground vehicles, but I think that with something on the order of current technology, that’s probably as close as we’ll get.