Mama told me not to come.
She said, that ain’t the way to have fun.
Yup, there are a lot of bad charities, and the good ones often can’t handle billions in donations. And doing that takes time away from things you enjoy. There’s a reason he didn’t step away from his position until his 90s, he likes what he does.
The basic service is free. There’s an enterprise tier with more features, such as prioritizing IP ranges (e.g. geographical areas the company operates in).
And why take the risk? Just pay Cloudflare to take care of it instead of getting all the expertise in house, surely that’s cheaper, no?
everyone panic selling could spread over to people panic selling everything and trying to get their hands on cold hard cash so their entire life savings dont vanish in an instant, so market wide we could see big drops?
Yeah, that’s basically what happens in a major correction. In fact, stock prices are valid basically the result of how many prior people are buying vs selling; more buyers than sellers causes prices to go up, more sellers than buyers cause prices to go down. Stock prices tend to have momentum precisely because of this (people try to jump on the bandwagon on the way up and jump off on the way down). And that’s also why we tend to see a quick recovery afterward once all the facts come out.
A 20-30% drop is a pretty big deal. It’s not anomalous though. There have been 19 major corrections (over 20% loss) over the past 150 years, meaning it happens every 7-10 years on average (150/19 ~= 7.8 years).
I don’t think this is like the .com or financial markets of the 2000s. But let’s say it is. If I bought at the peak of the .com bubble (March 10, 2000), I would’ve gotten 5.3% annualized growth over that 25 years (so $1k would be $3900-ish), assuming I don’t sell. The impact would be limited long term.
The AI bubble popping wouldn’t be the catastrophy many are making it out to be. I think it’ll be closer to the 2020 correction.
I think Nvidia is overvalued. I don’t think the economy will crash if AI crashes.
If you want this today, SpeedQueen has decent models that last forever and are very simple.
Some things aren’t as easy to mitigate, like DDOS attacks. If that’s a legitimate concern, something like Cloudflare makes a ton of sense.
A DDoS is much less likely to target your small site.
Is there a reason you’re tunneling through Cloudflare?
My point is Nvidia isn’t propping up the bubble. If you look at the OpenAI deal, it’s a bit less than their yearly revenue, and the deal is for about the number of GPUs they make in a year, so it’s basically trading GPUs for equity. If anything, Nvidia is profiting from the bubble, not propping it up.
we will all be effected
Oh certainly, but I don’t think it’s any different from other large corrections.
Here’s how I see the major companies in that chart in a crash situation:
It’ll he hit hard, but not nearly as bad as 2000 or 2008. If I look at the S&P 500, only 3 of the top 10 (Nvidia, Google, Meta) would be severely impacted, the rest only seem to dabble. Those 10 make up almost 40% of the S&P 500 and like 30-35% of the total US market. There are more large companies in there as well, but I don’t think most will be screwed like OpenAI. Palantir, for example, likely retains its government contracts for their data alone.
So in an AI bubble scenario, I’m guessing we see a correction of like 20-30%, maybe less depending on the nature of it. I think a more likely scenario is a bear market where investors slowly get tired of poor earnings as the promises of AI fail to manifest. If OpenAI dies, large companies just move to another provider.
And final note, it’s not a bubble because someone made a graphic, they made a graphic describing how it could be a bubble.
I think they’re missing the forest for the trees here. It’s not a bubble because these companies are investing in AI, it’s a bubble because tons of companies are buying into the hype. These companies are merely investing into solutions those companies claim to want. I work for a relatively small non-US company (a few thousand employees, revenue around $1B), and the board recently came to our tech group asking what we’re doing with AI.
This isn’t a handful of companies propping it up, a large chunk of the market is afraid of being left behind and demanding AI tools. All the graphic shows is how large companies are investing to meet the demand. Microsoft used OpenAI products in its offerings, OpenAI is a major Nvidia customer, etc.
I haven’t seen anything specific, but Cloudflare says its “global network” is down (regional networks are fine).
So yeah, maybe DNS like AWS.
And I argue it’s not a given that someone is a bad person just because they have billions of dollars.
If the mere fact of being a billionaire is bad, which it obviously is,
I don’t think that’s obvious at all. Becoming a billionaire just means you have a billion dollars worth of assets, and it doesn’t say anything about how you got that money.
There’s a high correlation between billionaire’s and being a bad person, but it’s not 1:1.
All that shows is who the business partners are. Nvidia sells GPUs, AI companies buy GPUs, and companies buy products from AI companies. For example, Microsoft’s Copilot is based on OpenAI’s models. End customers buy products from companies that either do AI themselves or buy products from AI companies.
All you’re seeing here is how markets work. If it’s a bubble, it’ll likely impact those in the picture, but it’s not a bubble because of the picture.
I’m pretty sure he is the anti-christ…
So, short the financial sector. Got it.
Yeah, a “safe” PE ratio is around 20. The PE of the entire market is about 28, so investors are basically saying Nvidia is going to grow at double the rate vs the rest of the economy.
I think that’s bonkers, but what’s even more bonkers is Palantir with a ~1700 PE ratio. That’s ludicrous.
If Nvidia crashes, I expect it fall to about half it’s current valuation, maybe a bit higher, and that’s assuming their sales aren’t impacted. If the floor falls out from GPUs, then drop that to 1/3 or so.
The best case, I think, is for Nvidia and Tesla to do well in the short term (next 6 months or so) and then crash. That way Thiel and most people following his investment advice get to eat it, but the bubble doesn’t stay propped up for too long.
Yup, I have ~15 options. Basically:
I’m in a mix of the first bullet point.
401ks won’t let you pick specific stocks, generally speaking, but they should have more options than just target date funds. Most will at least have an S&P 500 fund and usually an international fund.
This person ponies.