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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • I’m not sure you understand what this article is or how our markets work.

    The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with. Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars

    He doesn’t have a billion dollars. He’s a hedge fund manager that manages (at least) a billion dollars collectively of other people’s investment money. Its that money he’s betting.

    Them he’s betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we’re okay with that shit.

    No, he’s not. He’s betting against only two companies: Nvidia and Palantir. He has a relatively small bet against Nvidia ($187.6 million), and HUGE bet against Palantir ($912 million). I’m not sure I’d bet against Nvidia yet, but Palantir is co-founded by Peter Theil, trump’s deputy chief of staff which job has a large influence on White House policy. If you ever watched the TV show The West Wing, this would be the Josh Lyman character’s job.

    We already know trump’s favor swings widely and if politics are going against trump (as recent news show) then its not unbelievable that Theil might get the boot or at least trump would punish Theil by killing lucrative government contracts to buy Palantir services.

    All of this should be illegal as fuck, and this guy belongs in a jail cell

    The point of shorting a stock exists so that the market can express a view that they believe a stock will fail. This is an important “canary in the coal mine” for the rest of the market. The other option is a policy that you can’t criticize a company with any meaning and investors continue to put money into failing/risky companies without this important indication of the risk.

    Frankly I don’t like your idea of jailing someone that says “The emperor has no clothes”.


  • The fact that he was even able to make that bet is incredible. How deluded do you have to be to think the AI bubble won’t burst?

    Nobody believes the AI investment/growth trajectory we have right now will continue for infinity. What nobody knows is: when the correction will occur.

    • Do you pull your investments out now and sit on the sidelines waiting for the fallout while your principal loses value daily from inflation?
    • What does the correction look like when it happens? Does all the value evaporate on day 1, the first week, a month? This is important to figure out for this strategy to know when to go back in.

    This is the info/decisions you’d need as an average investor. What Burry is doing is the riskiest type of investments with shorting the market. If growth continue to occur he and his fund will have to pay for the growth to those whose shares he borrowed to short.

    In summary, its not enough to know that a bubble exists, but to profit from it you have to figure out when it will burst and when the full burst is done.





  • “2017 Stigmata? No, that’s a 2016. Notice the bulb size in the taillight array. In between the switch from 5th Gen to 6th they changed the LED bulb size from 3.3mm to 3.35, so now theres only 58 lights in the upper track.”

    “On the US domestic market version, sure, but on the European version (made in Dresden, not the one in made in Prague of course) they had to add the 59th light back to the upper track to comply with traffic safety laws”



  • My only problem is that I’m obsessed with health & fitness.

    That might be a problem if it rises to the level where causes you trouble interacting with society peacefully.

    I choose not to adapt to a sick obese society.

    If you’re talking about your own personal choices and consumption, no one is asking you to be obese. More importantly, the picture or the post the OP made also also doesn’t advocate for an obese society, so your assumption that it is would be projection on your part, no?

    If instead you’re saying you won’t tolerate other people in society being obese, that a very large problem because you don’t get to make those choices for others.

    And if that makes me an outlier and you think I need to be medicated in order to conform to all the fat slobs in the world,

    That’s a nice strawman, but it belongs to you, not me.

    I suggested you need might want help because you saw a fairly innocuous wholesome picture of a cartoon character that enjoyed a meal and you wrote an entire narrative about how it would lead to the subject becoming obese and unhappy in life. That’s not a reaction most folks have. Does that seem okay with you that you saw something that would otherwise be considered cute or happy and you only saw darkness in it?

    I’m frolicking at a nude beach right now and you probably wouldn’t feel comfortable here.

    Continue to do that if it brings you joy and fulfillment and doesn’t hurt anyone.


  • If this is where your mind goes when presented with with the otherwise wholesome image in the OP, I’d really recommend you talk to someone. If you have clinical depression, it isn’t your fault. Its a chemical imbalance and there is help available. We’re all broken in some way. Some people wear their challenges on the outside, other are invisible on the inside. There is zero shame in seeking help.




  • Just using the interest rate is an unfair comparison. You have to go get median house prices and median incomes as well to make a proper comparison. Just saying the rate was higher at some point is useless if we don’t also compare the prices and incomes because what really matters is affordability. Not saying your whole comment is wrong, just trying to say that this particular part seems to be biased in favor of the Boomers.

    I’d written a big post already, and diving into all the details and nuance was too much to put in the initial post. You’re right that the interest rate alone isn’t a determining factor, but I’d also disagree that its objectively in favor of Boomers, perhaps subjectively though. Another factor to consider is that in the downpayment requirements. Today we talk about the “best practice” of putting 20% down on a home, but that’s today. The alternative of putting less-than 20% down and using PMI didn’t even exist as a concept until 1971. It grew in popularity later, but in the early days it wasn’t common. Further, with higher interest rates it meant that much lower pay down of the principal was occurring in the first few years of the mortgage because of amortization. It was the beginning of the age of moving more frequently for jobs, which meant less equity build up as each house sale cycle robbed them of that benefit of wealth, arguable the most valuable investment asset of the working class.

    Median home price to median household income ratio This ratio is a key indicator of housing affordability

    I appreciate you doing and sharing that analysis.

    I think we both agree that its difficult to do an absolute comparison on the home buying/owning experience between the Boomer era and today’s Millennials (or GenZ) simply because so many conditions are different. We didn’t talk about Stagflation or unemployment rate in 1982 being 10.8% compared to today’s 4.3%. I pointed out the interest rate being higher because most folks approach new information as “all else being equal” conditions. The audience already knew that housing price was less in the Boomer era, additional it was known that income was higher proportionally to living expenses than today’s Millennials (or GenZ), what I doubted was common knowledge was the sky high interest rates compared to today. Thats what I was communicating.


  • There’s a huge gulf between pub clowd and shitty on-prem.

    We agree on this.

    Redundant everything piped in. Redundant everything set up. We run VMs by terraform. Wheeeeee

    For that customer of yours, is that a single datacenter or does is represent multiple datacenters separated by a large distance across a nation, or perhaps even across national borders?

    Point is, posing shitty on-prem as the alternative to the clowd is moving the goalposts a bit.

    I think ignoring that shitty on-prem represented a large part of IT infrastructure prior cloud providers is ignoring a critical point. Was it possible to have well-run enterprise IT data centers prior to cloud? Sure. Was everyone doing that? Absolutely not, I’d argue the majority had at least a certain level of jank in their infra and that that floor is raised with cloud providers. Just the basic facilities is enterprise grade irrespective of the server or app config.


  • Lead pipes are less of an issue that it would seem, as the pipes quickly develop a layer of calcium salts on the inside, preventing the water from actually coming into contact with the lead.

    This right here.

    If people remember the lead in drinking water contamination in Flint Michigan, its because they had lead pipes that were well coated with the protective layers and had no trouble with lead in water. Then the newly elected city manager changed water sources to cut costs against the advice of the water engineers in the city. The other source of water was more acidic and stripped out all that protective coating and suddenly there’s huge amounts of lead in the drinking water from the pipes.


  • I guess it’s to be expected. Boomers were raised in pure bliss, spent half their lives relatively stress-free. Everything was easy and cheap. When you live an easy life, you get used to being dumb, uninformed and lazy. The same would have probably happened to all zoomers in the same situation.

    I’m not a boomer, but this isn’t quite a fair characterization. Yes, they had cheap college, affordable cars, housing, lots of upward mobility that most of us would love to have today, but they lived through some shit too. Boomers were in their youth when humanity had its closest brush with global nuclear war when the bombers were in the air flying during the Cuban Missile Crisis. They lived everyday with a really good chance the world was going to end in nuclear war. They were the last generation to see a compulsory military draft and many know high school friends that were drafted and died in Vietnam. We think interest rates are bad these days making borrowing expensive. No shit they were having to get mortgages with a minimum of 18% and 19%:

    source

    This says nothing about the many racial and sexual discrimination issues that those groups faced making basic life even harder. In Canada it wasn’t until 1964 that a woman could open her own bank account without her husband’s consent. In the USA, redlining preventing people of color from buying homes in better areas denying them untold billions of dollars of generational wealth from real estate appreciation.

    Absolutely give the out-of-touch boomers that are dismissive of the problems young people are facing today the shit boomers deserve. They did so much to harvest the benefits of the last century and leave the bill to the younger generations while simultaneously destroying environment for the later generations to thrive the way they did. Just don’t forget that each generation has its problems too and there hasn’t been a generation yet that has been entirely carefree.



  • That work is still being done by someone in a data centre. But all these jobs went from in-house positions to the centres.

    The difference is scale. When in-house, the person responsible for managing the glycol loop is also responsible for the other CRACs, possibly the power rails, and likely the fire suppression. In a giant provider, each one of those is its own team with dozens or hundreds of people that specialize in only their area. They can spend 100% on their one area of responsibilty instead of having to wear multiple hats. The small the company, the more hats people have to wear, and the worse to overall result is because of being spread to thin.


  • We need to ditch cloud entirety and go in house again.

    For many many companies that would be returning to the bad-old-days.

    I don’t miss getting an emergency page during the Thanksgiving meal because there’s excessive temperature being reported in the in-house datacenter. Going into the office and finding the CRAC failed and its now 105 degree F. And you knew the CRAC preventive maintenance was overdue and management wouldn’t approve the cost to get it serviced even though you’ve been asking for it for more than 6 months. You also know with this high temp event, you’re going to have an increased rate of hard drive failures over the next year.

    No thank you.