Thiiis. The insiders need to laud the goals of protesters and the protesters need to ease off on the “complicit” insiders a bit. We are on the same team, and the combination of approaches is more powerful. Disagreeing on methods is fine, you pull, we push, momentum baby.
Fuck me, for self-proclaimed coward you are unbelievably smug. Don’t you consider that a “better” life also means being able to take pride that the way you move through the world doesn’t actively harm others. Just awful.
I was a computer scientist at a time when early generative AI work refered to output as the model “dreaming”. Makes it sound kind of sweet. It was viewed as kind of kooky to run pattern recognition models forward…
Every UI is made for widescreen ratio right? So maybe one portait for reading is cool, but what else do you want it for?
Although with the overt politicisation of BLS I think I’ll be with you in trusting ADP more going forward. Going to be super interesting to watch any divergence from now on. I guess it could be that some of the YTD difference was some internal power struggle that was unwound by the revisions leading to Trump sticking his oar in, but I think that’s a conspiracy theory until someone gives a quote to that effect.
Still confused why you continue to emphasise estimate when ADP is also an estimate.
I already emphasised the difficulty of real time stats, revisions are not shocking, but perfectly normal. I don’t think anyone is that surprised (though we can agree that there are a lot of overconfident and less statistically literate professionals), the gulf between hard data and sentiment/alternative data (vibecession and so forth) was well covered and had to resolve one way or another.
ADP was +104k in July, so by your previous logic we should expect upwards revisions in the BLS July number as the year goes on right?
Ah an economist, say no more fam.
What are you talking about? They’re both estimates extrapolated from samples. I think most statisticians would prefer stratified sampling over one company’s payrolls processing, but whatever. Maybe chuds would argue that ADP is so much more efficient/accurate because it’s outside of the “swamp” of govt, it’s certainly an independent data point. I mean I agree with you in that BLS is not reliable either. Real time economics is hard.
If you honestly preferred ADP all along and will continue to espouse it’s superiority when it next contradicts your view rather than confirming it (as it will because data are noisy) then more power to you.
BLS jobs report was a beat, +140k jobs and unemployment down a shade. I agree with you on the themes but it doesn’t help to cherry pick data.
Oh shiiiit, do that and come back and talk to us when you get to the time travel level.
Are we just in the phase of the medium where technology isn’t the defining quality. It would be slightly weird to try to stay at the forefront of, say, novels without any regard for reading classics. Why shouldn’t games be the same?
Like a reverse roko’s bassilisk. Interesting. I mean that way around is at least comforting/ gives main character energy.
“genuinely” herein lies the key. Interesting to pick Jedi as an example because I think we can agree that people who out that on a census or whatever typically have their tongue firmly in cheek. Wicca probably sits somewhere on a spectrum between that and the major religions. You’d be mad naive to assume that everyone holds beliefs exactly as stated. My papi was a priest and we’re pretty sure never believed in god. L Ron Hubbard himself was for sure was grifting FFS. Add to that and most religions can’t even agree what authentic means for their community and LOL
Gell-mann amnesia. Might have to invent a special name for the AI flavour of it.
I once fired a 22 round through the middle of a polo mint without breaking it from 25m away. I framed that shit because likewise, knew that wasn’t happening again. That’s part of the fun of the sport as a an amateur, occasionally chance does funny things.
Not quite never. You just need the tax rate plus marginal change in lost benefits/increased obligations to exceed 100%. For example there’s a breakpoint in the UK around childcare over 100k income that makes it way worth salary sacrificing to get below if you have kids. I can imagine there are similar niche things for small businesses around audit requirements or whatever, but not enough of an expert to know.
US economic output is more than adequate to achieve this already, but we choose instead to concentrate the benefits in the hands of a few.
Regarding tarrifs bringing back manufacturing: https://www.kcl.ac.uk/trumps-tariffs-what-is-behind-them-and-will-they-work “but this is very unlikely to work. Manufacturing has changed, with production now spread across multiple countries in so-called ‘global value chains’. Moving whole supply chains back to the US is going to be prohibitively expensive, result in rising consumer prices and make US-produced goods internationally uncompetitive. The model of manufacturing that underpins Trump’s approach simply hasn’t existed for the best part of 40 years, and is not coming back.”
First pass googling this returns very low information quality. I suspect “calculable” is more more like it than “measurable” but would love to see a source where measurements had been made that showed this effect greater than standard error.
“If not duffers, won’t drown. If duffers, better drowned.”
Avoiding Gell-Mann amnesia! Unfortunately, to even get to this question you have to be expert enough in one area to see through the BS… Not a luxury everyone is afforded.
It’s mad given that Scotland technically is quite pro-renter. You just can’t enforce anything so landlords have learned not to give a fuck. A friend viewed a tennament they were trying to let with no kitchen (as in no cooker fridge or sink). Like something out of trainspotting.