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Cake day: June 30th, 2023

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  • I truly don’t understand what you think I’m saying. I think that a response to a second direct attack being massive does not preclude it from not escalating (unless there’s a less conventional definition specific to military responses I’m not familiar with). Is Iran’s second direct attack on Israel not considered an escalation, and do you think that is not massive, despite rhetoric from the Ayatollah?

    Or is Israel not supposed to respond to this?



















  • https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah

    Hezbollah essentially operates as a government in the areas under its control, and neither the military nor federal authorities can counter this, Arab Barometer analysts MaryClare Roche and Michael Robbins write for Foreign Affairs. It manages a vast network of social services that include infrastructure, health-care facilities, schools, and youth programs, all of which have been instrumental in garnering support for Hezbollah from Shiite and non-Shiite Lebanese alike. Even so, Arab Barometer polling in 2024 found that “despite Hezbollah’s significant influence in Lebanon, relatively few Lebanese support it.”

    At the same time, Hezbollah maintains its military arm. Under the 1989 Taif Agreement, which was brokered by Saudi Arabia and Syria and ended Lebanon’s civil war, Hezbollah was the only militia allowed to keep its arms. The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated in 2020 that the militia had up to twenty thousand active fighters and some twenty thousand reserves, with an arsenal of small arms, tanks, drones, and various long-range rockets. Analyst and Brigadier General (Ret.) Assaf Orion, of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, says Hezbollah possesses “a larger arsenal of artillery than most nations enjoy,” and a 2018 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies called it “the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor.” In June 2024, experts speculated that Hezbollah has 150,000–200,000 rockets and missiles of various ranges.

    Critics say Hezbollah’s existence violates UN Security Council Resolution 1559—adopted in 2004—which called for all Lebanese militias to disband and disarm. The UN Force in Lebanon (UNFIL), first deployed in 1978 to restore the central government’s authority, remains in the country and part of its mandate is to encourage Hezbollah to disarm.

    In October 2019, Hezbollah became a target of mass protests. Government mismanagement and years of slow growth had saddled Lebanon with one of the world’s highest public debt burdens, at 150 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese citizens disillusioned by the economic slump called for the government, including Hezbollah, to cede power to a new, technocratic leadership. The formation of a Hezbollah-backed government under Prime Minister Hassan Diab in January 2020 failed to appease antiestablishment protesters, who saw it as a win for the country’s entrenched elites. Unemployment, poverty, and debt soared under the new government, and demonstrations persisted for months despite lockdowns amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The protest movement spanned religious backgrounds, and even fellow Shiites openly criticized Hezbollah.





  • I see.

    https://www.newsweek.com/jill-stein-vladimir-putin-war-criminal-1954965

    Hasan later asked Stein why she had labeled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a war criminal, but not Putin.

    “Well, as John F. Kennedy said, we must not negotiate out of fear and we must not fear to negotiate,” she replied. “So, if you want to be an effective world leader, you don’t start by name-calling and hurling epithets.”

    “So, how will President Stein negotiate with Israel then if you’ve called Netanyahu a war criminal?” Hasan asked in response.

    “Well, because he very clearly is a war criminal,” Stein said, prompting Hasan to ask: “So Putin clearly isn’t a war criminal?”

    “Well, we don’t have a decision—put it this way—by the International Criminal Court,” Stein said.

    The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin, alleging that he is responsible for war crimes. No such warrant has been issued for Netanyahu, whose war on Gaza has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians. However, the chief prosecutor of the ICC has applied for an arrest warrant for the Israeli prime minister.