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They will probably just try to pay modders more for their mods on the official store than what Nexus is paying them, by charging users a microtransaction to download each mod. Modders probably will make so much more money for their mods, that they won’t want to upload to Nexus or anywhere else. Also, there’s no way that Bethesda is going to allow nsfw mods on their official store, so I guess we’ll see what happens.
Targeting specific servers sounds like a problem of centralization, not fragmentation. If hosts can just easily move to new proxy servers, and users can easily create new accounts on any random server, then I don’t think the Fediverse would be easy to target. The direction that a lot servers are going, with having to type a paragraph to join, seems like the opposite direction to me, and it makes me appreciate this server more.