Good and informative article.
“The message was basically — you are losing,” one of the sources said, “and you need to accept the deal.”
Are they losing?
For the past three years, the news from Russia has been about young men leaving the country because Putin keeps updating the laws around the draft/conscription to feed his war machine.
I’m sure Ukraine is in a similar position, but it doesn’t sound like a clearcut win for Russia, either.
They are very obviously losing right now. Ukraine is suffering from a critical manpower shortage, the west is not able to provide them with weapons, the economic situation in Ukraine is unravelling, and there’s a huge political scandal.
Meanwhile, the news from Russia for the past three years has absolutely not been that. Even Ukrainian media admits that https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-thousands-of-russians-return-home-boosting-war-economy
I guess UK regime propaganda is still trying to pretend otherwise though. Given that Russia isn’t gang pressing people into service it’s not clear what basis the Brits have for their bombastic claims.
The reality is that Russian economy is stable and growing, it’s able to outproduce the west militarily, and its trade is now oriented towards BRICS. Given the stark difference between Russia and Ukraine in terms of available manpower, resources, and economy, it’s pretty clear to anybody who can do grade school math that Russia is going to win the war.
Given that Russia isn’t gang pressing people into service
I wouldn’t take that as “given”.
And with the new law, draftees are immediately banned from leaving the country.
Those who fail to show up at a recruitment office promptly will soon face a raft of new restrictions related to banking, selling property and even gaining access to a driver’s license.
Already before the reform, people who refused orders to serve in the military have faced a possible prison sentence of up to 10 years. (NPR)
As part of their efforts to combat draft evasion, authorities earlier this year launched an electronic register of conscripts to serve online summonses in some Russian regions. They also introduced a series of legal restrictions for those who ignore the summonses, including banning their bank transactions, suspending their driver’s licenses and blocking foreign travel. (AP)
I quoted the NPR and AP articles, since you seem allergic to reporting from the UK.
I wouldn’t take that as “given”.
There is zero evidence for that being true. Meanwhile, the fact that it’s happening in Ukraine is very well documented https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-recruitment-army/
I quoted the NPR and AP articles, since you seem allergic to reporting from the UK.
You’re confusing the regular draft for the reserves that Russia has had since the soviet times with the war draft here. There was exactly a single time that there was a call up back in 2022.
Finally, you only have to consider the size difference in overall population. Even if there was the same rate of desertion on both sides, then Ukraine would still lose.
Your responses have nothing to do with the parts of my comment that you’re quoting.
In the first quote (I wouldn’t take that as “given”) I was responding to your claim that Russia wasn’t press-ganging citizens into service. I then quoted two articles which themselves cited Russian sources (I’m pretty sure the State Duma is Russian) that said the Russian government was changing the draft rules and imposing severe penalties on people attempting to avoid the draft.
The second quote was pretty straightforward (I quoted the NPR and AP articles, since you seem allergic to reporting from the UK.), so I don’t know how you went from that to “confusing regular draft for reserves”, but I’ll respond to that, too.
I’m not confusing the regular draft for reserves. Both sources explicitly use the terms “draft” and “conscript” to describe the people I’m talking about.
And I directly addressed your claim explaining that there is no evidence of gang pressing happening in Russia, and that you were referring to the regular reserves draft that’s been happening long before the war.
I’m not confusing the regular draft for reserves. Both sources explicitly use the terms “draft” and “conscript” to describe the people I’m talking about.
Yes, you are absolutely confusing the draft with the call up to the front line. I’m also guessing that you didn’t actually read the article you linked because its says the same thing I’m saying:
The bill’s authors say the measure is intended to ease pressure on military conscription offices and streamline their activities, which includes performing the physicals and assigning conscripts to various military branches.
Even though the bill will make conscription a year-round process, it stipulates that conscripts will enter military service only during a few spring and summer months as before.
All Russian men aged 18-30 currently are obliged to serve in the military for one year, although many avoid the draft by using deferments granted to students, those with chronic illnesses, and for other reasons.
Even your own source is admitting that there is no increase in conscription happening.
You keep changing the argument you claim I’m making.
Here’s the comment, as a reminder.
I called into question your claim that press ganging (coercion into military service) wasn’t happening, by citing sources that the Russian government was changing the rules of the draft and imposing severe penalties on people who tried to avoid it.
The sources you cited literally support what I said:
Even though the bill will make conscription a year-round process, it stipulates that conscripts will enter military service only during a few spring and summer months as before.
Do you even understand what the term press ganging means?
Lol nice try with the Russian propaganda. The only thing growing in Russia is the amount of debt and their death toll.
Ah yes, Russian propaganda as reported by mainstream western media. The BBC admits that all the western economies are doing worse, meanwhile European propagandists acknowledge that Russia can fight on for years:
Finally, Russian debt to GDP is far lower than in the west.
Nice try with your thought terminating cliche though.
Okay, so DM me when Russia surrenders and I’ll make a big mea culpa post
