I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?
I want to check this math and see if the AI is gaslighting me.
Aaahhwww crap, another one? Yes, the AI is likely wrong because no, it’s not intelligent at all, it’s a distance measuring database that learned for a long time to put bytes in a certain order so that it appears like intelligence to us. It is not. It has no concept of anything, its literally going "with this input, and with the previous word being “car”, the next likely word is “drives”
It has no concept of what a car is, it doesn’t know what driving is. It could be an alien language for all it knows, it just knows that those words probably follow one another. With that, it just as easily dreams up nonsense, and most of the “facts” that it gives you will be factuali wrong.
Understanding and being correct are two different things my lord. Generative AI can be correct most of the time, while understanding 0%