Actually, OAI the other month found in a paper that a lot of the blame for confabulations could be laid at the feet of how reinforcement learning is being done.

All the labs basically reward the models for getting things right. That’s it.

Notably, they are not rewarded for saying “I don’t know” when they don’t know.

So it’s like the SAT where the better strategy is always to make a guess even if you don’t know.

The problem is that this is not a test process but a learning process.

So setting up the reward mechanisms like that for reinforcement learning means they produce models that are prone to bullshit when they don’t know things.

TL;DR: The labs suck at RL and it’s important to keep in mind there’s only a handful of teams with the compute access for training SotA LLMs, with a lot of incestual team compositions, so what they do poorly tends to get done poorly across the industry as a whole until new blood goes “wait, this is dumb, why are we doing it like this?”